Monday, 16 September 2013

Increasing sea ice is an effect of global warming?

That David Rose Daily Mail piece on increased Arctic ice may prove the opposite of what he claims. Far from demonstrating global cooling, it may be a side-effect of warming, plus deterioration of the ozone layer.

This article from Australia in 2011 (I'm asking for permission to reproduce in full) argues a causal chain, which I understand as follows:
  1. The hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole is cooling the stratosphere
  2. An effect of this local temperature change is to let air drop down and push out, strengthening the winds that circle the Antarctic
  3. The boosted cyclonic winds push sea ice around and create gaps within the sheet, where the water is less turbulent and so freezes more easily
  4. Meanwhile, the warmer air causes more rain and snow to fall on the sea*
  5. This (less salty) precipitation is less dense than the warm saltwater rising from lower layers of the sea, so it sits on top and keeps the surface cooler than it otherwise would be
  6. The lower, warmer water is largely trapped in its own layer, so less of it rises to melt sea ice
*I don't know whether this is because warmer air carries more water vapour and so has more to dump when it meets a front of colder air; or for some other reason.

I've asked the writer if the same thing could be happening in the Arctic.

Also, if the sea is warmer, then presumably there will be more evaporation and so more to fall on the central ice cap of the North Pole and the landmass of the Antarctic, potentially increasing the thickness of the ice at each place.

All original material is copyright of its author. Fair use permitted. Contact via comment. Unless indicated otherwise, all internet links accessed at time of writing. Nothing here should be taken as personal advice, financial or otherwise. No liability is accepted for third-party content, whether incorporated in or linked to this blog; or for unintentional error and inaccuracy. The blog author may have, or intend to change, a personal position in any stock or other kind of investment mentioned.

1 comment:

A K Haart said...

The fact that arguments such as this seem plausible is itself a clue to the lack of coherent structure within climate science.

At what point does this model unravel and allow thawing?

How do we confirm it by experiment?